Macro Snapshot: CUR, RSCI and Sectoral Confidence Indices

In January, CUR of manufacturing sector, RSCI and sectoral confidence indexes gave a mixed outlook.

Seasonally adjusted (SA) Capacity Utilization Rate (CUR) of Manufacturing Sector increased by 0.2pps MoM to 75.6% (Prior: +0.1pps).

SA Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) decreased by %1.3 points to 109 (Prior: +2.8%).

Sectoral Confidence Indices;

Services Sector Confidence Index increased by 2.9% to 101.9 (Prior: -3.7%).

Retail Trade Sector Confidence Index decreased by 0.1% to 108.5 (Prior: -10.9%).

Construction Sector Confidence Index decreased by 5.2% to 84.2 (Prior: -1.4%).

Starting from January 2021, the method used in the business tendency surveys for determining enterprises to apply the surveys has been updated. Enterprise’s turnover and sectors’ Gross Domestic Product (GDP) value added weights have been started to use in calculations.

RSCI and sectoral confidence indices can take value between 0 and 200. It indicates an optimistic outlook when the indices are above 100, but it indicates a pessimistic outlook when they are below 100 (and stable outlook when the indices are equal to 100).

Recovery trend continues despite the momentum losses, but still below of the pre-pandemic levels.

Intermediate and durable goods’ CUR reached pre-pandemic levels. CUR of non-durables seems weak.

Unadjusted CUR almost reached the same level at the same month in last year.

CUR of consumption and capital goods couldn’t reach pre-pandemic level yet.

15 out of 23 sub-sectors of manufacturing sector posted negative annual changes. The highest declines belong to wearing apparels, repair and installation of machinery, and furniture.

SA RSCI, decreased slightly in January from the highest levels since the 1H18.

Confidence indices can take value between 0 and 200. It indicates an optimistic outlook when the indices are above 100, but it indicates a pessimistic outlook when they are below 100 (and stable outlook when the indices are equal to 100).

Orders and investment decreased whereas the stocks and general situation recorded monthly increases. Only the orders remained below of 100.

Despite the optimistic outlook continued, all sub-indices decreased simultaneously for the first time since April 2020.

Service sector confidence index climbed to the optimistic area.

Employment, demand and business situation indices increased together. However, demand continued to stay at the pessimistic area.

Expectations on the price levels and employment level decreased for the second month in a row.

Retail-trade sector confidence continued to stay above of 100 for the third straight month.

Sales volume dropped sharply for the second consecutive month while the volume of stocks continued to increase slightly.

The increase in the volume of stock index indicates the decrease of volume of stock, whereas decrease indicates increase of volume of stock.

Albeit the all expectations remained at optimistic side; only the sales expectations recorded a monthly increase.

Construction sector confidence index recorded 4th monthly decrease in the last 6 months.

Building activity surged to optimistic area for the first time since August 2017 while current order books dropped fort he 5th time in the last 6 months.

Employment level expectations decreased to pessimistic area again after 2 months.

 

Source: Y.F. Securities Research