Türkiye’s economy is expected to grow by 3.5 percent this year before the GDP expansion accelerates to 4 percent in 2025 and 4.5 percent in 2026, according to the government’s medium-term economic program revealed on Sept. 5.
Unveiling the program, Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz said the growth projection for 2024 was revised downward by a 0.5 percentage point from the previous program due to rising geopolitical tensions in the region.
The government’s economic growth target for 2027 is 5 percent.
Several ministers, including Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek as well as Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan, were also present at the launch of the program which covers the 2025-27 period.
“These targets aim to ensure that the economy reaches its potential growth capacity and achieves a stable growth trend in the long term,” Yilmaz said, stressing that the growth path aligns with the disinflation course.
The GDP at current prices is expected to increase to 44.2 trillion Turkish liras ($1.33 trillion) this year, up from 26.5 trillion ($1.13 trillion) last year, he said.
The program targets an 83.1 trillion liras ($1.77 trillion) GDP at current prices in 2027 and a $20,420 GDP per capita at current prices, Yilmaz noted.
Stressing that the main objective of the program is to ensure price stability, Yilmaz said the government targets to bring consumer inflation down to 17.5 percent in 2025 from a projected inflation rate of 41.5 percent at the end of 2024.
In the previous program, the inflation targets for 2024 and 2025 were 33 percent and 15.2 percent, respectively.
Türkiye’s new economic program forecasts that inflation rate would fall down to single digits, 9.7 percent in 2026 and 7 percent in 2027, he said.
According to the latest data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), Türkiye’s annual consumer inflation rate eased to 51.97 percent in August, the lowest since July 2023.
“The main macroeconomic projections and targets set out in the economic program, which we launched in September last year have been met to a great extent…This demonstrates the effectiveness and predictability of our program,” Yılmaz said.
According to the new program, the budget deficit is projected to decrease from 4.9 percent of GDP in 2024 to 3.1 percent in 2025. It is expected to further shrink to 2.8 percent of national income in 2026 and down to 2.5 percent in 2027.
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