Former editor in chief of Hurriyet daily, and currently a blogster Mr Ertugrul Ozkok covered the results of Panaroma Research Company in his latest blog, which claims there has been a sea change in Turkish politics. Main opposition party CHP is currently number one in the polls, a lead it can preserve to next elections.
This is what Ertugrul Ozkok wrote:
The results of a very important survey came to my attention yesterday. As a principle, I do not publish election polls. However, there was a conclusion in this survey which answered the question that many of us were most curious about. What was this question and its answer? That’s exactly why I’m publishing this survey.
These are the June survey results of Panorama, one of the three research companies that do their job seriously in Turkey and that I trust. According to the research conducted by Panorama company on 2 thousand 160 subjects between 7-14 June 2024;
If the election were held today, the vote rates the parties would receive are as follows:
(*) First party: CHP 35 percent
(*) Second party: AKP 32.1 percent
(*) Third party: DEM 9 percent (pro-Kurdish rights)
(*) Fourth party: MHP 7.1 percent (nationalist)
(*) Fifth party: New Welfare 6 percent (Ultra-Islamist)
(*) Sixth party: Victory Party 3.6 percent (anti-immigrant)
(*) Seventh party: İyi Party 2.7 percent (center-right)
(*) Eighth party: Labor Party 1.4 percent (leftist)
(*) Other: 3.2 percent
I think the real question that those who voted for both the government and the opposition are more curious about than the survey results is this: Does the startling outcome in the March 31 local election still prevail in the public mood? In other words, has the situation where CHP is in the first party position and AKP in the second position changed or not three months since local elections? This is where the special importance of the June survey reveals itself.
Panaroma General Manager Hatem Efe answered this question. He answered not only that question, but also other questions that you had not thought of or were afraid to ask. I quote verbatim from his report:
Will the 22-year AKP reign continue?
(*) The result of March 31 is becoming permanent: “The new political axis emerging by March 31 seems to have become largely permanent three months later.”
(*) CHP preserved its leadership as the leading party: “The vote rate of political parties stabilized within a narrow band. CHP has confirmed its position as the first party, which it rose to on March 31, by maintaining it for three consecutive months. “AKP is behind CHP by 2-3 points.”
(*) Can the AKP become the leading party again: “Due to the low difference with CHP, it would not be surprising if the AKP becomes the first party again. However, in any case, it is possible to assert that the 22-year period of AKP’s unchallenged superiority is now behind us.”
Will Erdoğan maintain his power until 2028?
(*) What will happen in the coming years?: “It seems that we are entering a period where the first place will change hands between AKP and CHP in the coming period.”
(*) The hegemony of Erdoğan and the People’s Alliance (AKP + MHP) is ending: “Two reflections of this will be the weakening of the political hegemony monopoly of Erdoğan and the People’s Alliance. ”
(*) The opposition will push against the limits of legitimacy drawn by the government: “The period when the opposition was uneasy about going beyond the limits of political legitimacy drawn by the government seems to be over.
Who will determine the agenda in Turkey until 2028?
(*) Erdoğan-Özel will now determine the agenda: “In the coming period, the political agenda will be shaped not only by Erdoğan and the People’s Alliance, but also through the interaction between Erdoğan and Özel or the ruling bloc and the CHP.”
(*) March 31 produced more important results than May 14, 2023 presidential and general elections: “In this respect, it would not be wrong to say that the March 31 elections had a more critical impact on the structural dynamics and possible course of Turkish political life than the May 14 elections.”
(*) Undoubtedly, a new era has begun: “The March 31 elections have started a new era in the context of government-opposition relations and society-politics interaction.”
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