German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was due to meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Saturday to discuss the escalating Middle East crisis and migration. A spokesperson for the German government named migration, the war in Ukraine, and economic matters as the issues that will be discussed. The biggest expectation of Turkey from EU, namely negotiations on a new and expanded Customs Union, which will hasten integration of two economies and increase trade and FDI is not on the agenda.
Scholz arrived in Istanbul on Friday night after a meeting with US President Joe Biden and the leaders of France and Britain in Berlin.
Turkey’s relations with Germany – home to Europe’s largest Turkish diaspora of some three million people – are sensitive. Berlin has voiced concerns over the state of human rights and democracy under Erdogan especially after a failed 2016 coup.
Migration is expected to figure high on the agenda of the talks between Scholz and Erdogan.
Scholz’s government has been under heightened pressure over the issue after a series of crimes carried out by asylum seekers.
Turkey is the third most common country of origin of asylum seekers in Germany, behind Syria and Afghanistan.
Most of the rejected asylum seekers from Turkey belong to the Kurdish minority, says political scientist Hürcan Asli Aksoy. “There is talk of an asylum deal between Berlin and Ankara, which could see up to 500 asylum seekers deported every week.” Reportedly, there are 15K such refugees in custody in Germany.
There has been no official confirmation of this from Turkey. However, according to Turkish press sources Ankara will concede to Berlin’s demand. If this deal goes through, Germany also wants to repatriate Syrian residing in the country illegally to Turkey. In return, Germany may offer to up the annual EU aid to Turkey to pay for the costs of hosting Syrian refugees.
A spokesperson for the German government named migration, the war in Ukraine, and economic matters as the issues that will be discussed.
Turkey has been instrumental in making it possible for Ukrainian grain supplies to once again reach the world market via the Black Sea. There have been talks for weeks now about setting up an international contact group to find ways to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, and Turkey is also supposed to be involved.
The German Chancellor also hopes to convince Turkey to align with the European Union’s sanctions policy against Russia. “Chancellor Scholz must also make clear that this is a condition for a customs union with the EU,” Jens Bastian argued.
Turkey will also expect progress on its plans to buy 40 Eurofighter Typhoons which are built by a four-nation consortium including Germany. Turkish sources claim Germany will lift its veto on the jet fighter sale, but maintain it for numerous key components its companies sell to Turkish Armed Forces.
Ankara hopes it will convince Berlin to ease the de facto ban on visa seekers, in particular business people. A very large number of visa applications to Schengen has been rejected by member countries in the last two year because of fears of illegal immigration.
Turkish trade with EU and FDI from it may expand significantly, if EU agrees to begin negotiations on renewing the aging Customs Union treaty, but hiding behind Greek Cypriote Administration and Greece concerns, Brussels has so far postponed the process.
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