In December, short term outstanding loans increased by USD1.8bn whereas long term
outstanding external loans decreased USD16.5bn in comparison to the end of 2019. Private sector’s external loans to GDP ratio was 31.4% according to the latest figures and our GDP estimate (2019: 32.1%).
Regarding long-term loans, liabilities to private creditors excluding bonds amounted to USD109.4bn, decreasing by USD14.3bn compared to the end of the previous year.
Share of USD loans in total at 60.8% stands close to the highest level since 2006.
The USD1.6bn and USD243mn added to January and February redemptions, respectively in comparison to the previous report.
The cumulative share of top 5 creditors is at 68.1%.
USD6.9bn of increase in the trade credits was the main driver of USD8bn of jump in the total short term loans in comparison the end of 2019.
The cumulative share of top 5 creditors is at 44.8%.
The planned redemption for 2021YE constitutes 20.9% of the LT debt stock as of December 2020.
A USD10bn of USD16.5bn decrease in the total LT loans belongs to the nonfinancial sector (USD8.5bn of the drop belongs to the services – USD8.2bn of decrease from transportation- sector) in comparison the end of 2019.
Source: Y.F. Securities Research