Reuters’ survey of expectations for July inflation data to be announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute on August 5 was concluded with the participation of 11 economists.
The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) is expected to increase by 3.45 percent month-on-month in July, accelerating its annual decline with the contribution of the base effect after this year’s peak at 75% in May, and is expected to be slide to 62.1 percent.
Inflation is expected to be 42.2 percent at the end of 2024, above the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s (CBRT) 38 percent forecast. Year-end forecasts did not change significantly compared to the previous survey.
In the survey, monthly forecasts are between 2.48 percent and 4 percent, while the year-end forecast range is between 40 percent and 46 percent.
Additional increase in inflation in July
CBRT Deputy Governor Cevdet Akçay stated in an interview that adjustments in taxes and administered prices will add 1.5 points to monthly inflation in July and said that the data may come higher than expected.
The July CPI expectation in the CBRT’s market participants survey published last week was 2.77 percent. Inflation peaked in May. CPI increased by 6.7 percent and 4.53 percent in January and February due to the price adjustments made at the beginning of the year and the minimum wage hike.
In March and April, the CPI rose by 3.2 percent month-on-month, above expectations, albeit at a relatively slower pace. In May, it increased by 3.37 percent, reaching its annual peak. In June, monthly price increases also fell below 2 percent and CPI was realized as 71.60 percent on an annual basis.