Russia unhappy with Turkish arms exports to Ukraine

In the first public rebuke from Moscow,  Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has questioned Turkey’s military support for Ukraine during the conflict, calling it a “surprise”.

 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said he is “surprised” that Turkey is continuing to supply weapons to Ukraine while offering to act as mediator in the conflict.

 

NATO member Turkey has been trying to strike a balancing act between the two countries since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

 

Ankara supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity and has provided the country with armed drones and other military support, but it is also strengthening its energy ties with Russia and opposes Western sanctions on Moscow.

 

Turkey hosted peace talks between the two nations shortly after the invasion in 2022, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has repeatedly discussed brokering further discussions. Ukraine has since remained firm on not engaging directly with Russia on peace negotiations, and Russian President Vladimir Putin said last week that Kyiv had already twice rejected ceasefire initiatives from Moscow.

 

In an interview with the Turkish newspaper Hürriyet, Lavrov said: “Turkish weapons are used by the Ukrainian armed forces to kill Russian military personnel and civilians.”

 

“This situation cannot but cause surprise, given the Turkish government’s statements that it is ready to provide mediation,” he said in the interview published on Friday.

 

Tim Ash on Turkey and Russia

In his latest blog, Tim Ash commented on the multi-layered relationship between Turkey and Russia: Turkiye lives in a difficult neighborhood, sharing borders with Ukraine and Russia, plus also Iran, et al. Whatever the personal relationship between Erdogan and Putin it has enabled Turkiye to provide very significant military support to Ukraine, support that has been critical in enabling Ukraine to defend itself against the Russian invasion. Bayraktar drones appeared to play a critical role in the early days of the invasion, in favor of Ukraine. Türkiye is also a conduit for capital flight out of Russia – which is a good thing – albeit I think it needs to do more to contain efforts by Russia to import materials useful for its war effort. Recent efforts by the West to tighten the sanctions regime around Russia, including sanctioning various Turkish entities and individuals I think will begin to have a greater effect at deterring efforts at sanctions evasion. But in the end Türkiye’s core strategic relationship is with NATO, and I think there is no scenario where Turkiye would appreciate a Russian victory against Ukraine. Such a scenario would be a disaster in terms of Türkiye’s own security, risking an enlarged Russian presence in the Black Sea and the potential for Russia’s own considerable military industrial complex to be enhanced with the addition of that of Ukraine – that would then pose a huge security risk to Turkiye. I think Ukraine and Western allies are increasingly understanding of Türkiye’s position – and potentially it could still be a conduit for peace talks, as it remains one of the few parties trusted by both Russia and Ukraine.

 

Turkey has supplied Ukraine with Bayraktar TB2 drones, heavy machine guns, laser-guided missiles, electronic warfare systems, armored vehicles and protective gear.

 

 

The Turkish defense and aviation industry achieved record exports in 2023, which totaled $5.5 billion, up 27.1% on the previous year, according to a report by the Turkish Exporters Assembly (TIM). About 5.3% of those exports went to Ukraine, which was a similar share of exports to Azerbaijan (5.1%) and Poland (4.9%), but considerably less than the proportion that went to the US (16.7%), the report said.

 

Turkey also refuses to acknowledge Russia’s annexation of Crimea.    Invited by Putin directly, Turkey applied for BRICS membership, but failed to achieve a consensus in the 16th BRICS summit held in Russia’s Kazan province.

 

India has rejected Turkey’s BRICS membership bid, citing the latter’s close relationship with Pakistan. The bid fell through as no consensus was reached among members, and the group decided not to accept new members in the near future.

 

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Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and www.paraanaliz.com and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal.