A vast majority of recent polls conducted for Istanbul mayoral elections show incumbent Imamoglu leading his AKP challenger Murat Kurum, by 1-4% margins. However the results will depend on whether AKP’s rival New Welfare Party fields a candidate and whether pro-Kurdish rights DEM nominates Mrs Basak Demirtas, the spouse of beloved Kurdish leader Salaheddin Demirtas.
According to first simulation conducted for Istanbul covering these scenarios, Imamoğlu is ahead of the Kurum, even if the DEM Party nominates a candidate. Kurum is seen catching up with Imamoğlu in the option where only Başak Demirtaş is a candidate and the New Welfare Party does not nominate a candidate.
While time is running out for local elections to be held in March 2024; not all candidates for Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality have been determined. The New Welfare Party (YRP) and DEM Party announced that they would nominate candidates in Istanbul, complicating the race. According to polling companies, the current mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu is mostly ahead.
Public opinion researcher Ulaş Tol shared Core Research’s Istanbul Metropolitan Election survey with four alternatives according to the stance of the DEM Party and YRP.
According to the survey, Imamoğlu is ahead of Kurum even if the DEM Party nominates a candidate.
The simulation reveals that Imamoğlu is ahead in all of the options in which the DEM Party nominates a low-profile candidate or the YRP nominates any candidate. In the option where DEM nominates Başak Demirtaş BUT YRP does compete, helping AKP votes, Kurum catches Imamoğlu with 42.8 percent.
According to the survey results, if DEM Party nominates a low-profile candidate and YRP does not nominate a candidate, Imamoğlu gets 45.9 percent of the votes and Kurum gets 42.8 percent.
If DEM Party nominates a low-profile candidate (that is anyone but Basak Demirtas) and YRP nominates a candidate, Imamoğlu’s vote rate drops to 45.4 percent with Kurum dropping to 39.3 percent.
If DEM Party’s candidate is Başak Demirtaş, not a low-profile candidate, and YRP nominates a candidate, Imamoğlu reaches 42.3 percent, with Kurum lagging behind at 39.3 percent. However, if Başak Demirtaş becomes a candidate and YRP does not nominate a candidate; Kurum catches up with Imamoğlu with 42.8 votes.
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