Potential End to Decades-Long Conflict Could Reshape Regional Dynamics
Turkey is reportedly on the verge of a historic declaration by Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which could lead to the disbandment of the militant group. If confirmed, this move would have far-reaching implications for Turkey’s domestic politics, U.S.-Turkey relations, and the broader geopolitical landscape in Syria and Iraq.
A Potential End to Five Decades of Conflict
According to sources, Ocalan is expected to urge PKK members to lay down their arms and disband the organization. The announcement, if realized, could mark the end of a five-decade-long armed struggle against the Turkish state. The resolution of this conflict would not only alter Turkey’s internal security landscape but also remove a longstanding point of contention in its relations with the United States.
For years, Washington’s partnership with the PKK-affiliated People’s Defense Units (YPG) in Syria has strained ties with Ankara. A formal dissolution of the PKK could pave the way for a reset in U.S.-Turkey relations, particularly under the incoming second Trump administration.
The Key Players in the Proposed Deal
- Abdullah Ocalan: Detained since 1999, Ocalan has spent 26 years in solitary confinement. Reports suggest that Turkey may offer him house arrest on the mainland in exchange for securing the PKK’s compliance.
- Qandil Leadership: The PKK’s senior leaders, based in Iraq’s Qandil Mountains, include Murat Karayilan, Cemil Bayik, and Duran Kalkan. Some of them may resist the deal, fearing either assassination or lack of concessions.
- PKK Rank and File: Following years of Turkish counterterrorism operations, PKK fighters face dwindling morale, which could make Ocalan’s call for disarmament more persuasive.
- Iraqi Kurds: Turkey is reportedly engaging Iraq’s Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) to exert pressure on the PKK.
- Syrian Kurds (YPG/SDF): The YPG’s strategic position in Syria has weakened amid Turkish military operations and shifting U.S. policy. If Ocalan calls for peace, the YPG may comply, despite possible resistance from PKK hardliners.
- DEM Party: Turkey’s pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) may face internal divisions, as some members see the deal as strengthening President Erdogan’s political standing.
Implications for U.S.-Turkey Relations
The United States has long encouraged a peaceful resolution to the PKK-Turkey conflict. If Ocalan follows through, it could open new diplomatic opportunities, including:
- Easing U.S.-Turkey tensions over Syria
- Facilitating cooperation in the fight against ISIS
- Stabilizing Kurdish politics in Iraq and Syria