S&P Global has revised its growth forecasts for the Turkish economy in 2023 and 2024, taking into account the better-than-expected performance of domestic demand. The organization increased its growth forecast for Turkey in 2023 from 3.5% to 3.7% and raised the 2024 forecast from 2.3% to 2.4%. The growth forecast for 2025 was revised from 2.9% to 2.7%, and for 2026, it was adjusted from 3.1% to 3.0%.
In the assessment, the average inflation in Turkey was projected to be 53.7% this year and 50.3% next year, with forecasts of 29.1% for 2025 and 18.0% for 2026.
S&P predicted that the CBRT benchmark interest rate would be 42.5% at the end of this year, 35.0% at the end of 2024, 20.0% at the end of 2025, and 15.0% at the end of 2026.
For the USD/TRY exchange rate, S&P’s forecasts were 30.0 at the end of 2023, 40.0 at the end of 2024, 42.0 at the end of 2025, and 43.0 at the end of 2026.