Survey: Voters Against New Constitution, Deal With PKK

The recent election survey by AREA Research, conducted from January 22-24, 2025, unveiled significant insights into Turkey’s political landscape. With voter preferences and the potential presidential candidate for the opposition in focus, the survey results highlight a highly competitive race between the ruling AKP and the main opposition CHP, as well as public opinion on constitutional amendments for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s re-election.

 

Key Findings from the Survey

  • CHP vs. AKP: The vote shares for CHP (22.7%) and AKP (22.9%) reveal a razor-thin margin, emphasizing a highly competitive environment.
  • Other Parties:
    • MHP: 7.4%
    • Democracy and Progress Party (DEM Party): 6.3%
    • Zafer Party: 5.9%
    • İyi Party: 5.5%
    • Yeniden Refah Partisi: 2.5%
    • Anahtar Parti: 1.6%
  • Undecided Voters: A significant 22% of participants remain undecided, reflecting a crucial battleground for all parties.

Perception of the Presidential Government System

When asked about the effectiveness of the Presidential Government System:

  • 36.2% found it successful.
  • 60.1% deemed it unsuccessful.
  • Among AKP voters, 24.2% rated it unsuccessful, and within the MHP, this figure stood at 29.1%. Among CHP and İyi Party supporters, over 90% evaluated the system as unsuccessful.

Constitutional Amendment for Erdoğan’s Re-election

The survey also addressed the constitutional limitation on presidential terms. Participants were asked if they support amending the rule allowing only two terms for Erdoğan to run again:

  • 65.3% opposed the amendment.
  • 29.7% supported it.
  • Responses among MHP voters were evenly split, highlighting internal division on the issue.

Opposition’s Presidential Candidate

When asked about the opposition’s potential candidate:

  • 36.8% had no opinion.
  • 30.1% favored Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş.
  • 21.1% supported Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu.

Support for Yavaş and İmamoğlu as Candidates

  • 50.1% supported İmamoğlu’s candidacy.
  • 53.7% believed Mansur Yavaş should run under all circumstances.

Independent Candidacy of Mansur Yavaş

If Mansur Yavaş were to run as an independent candidate:

  • 43.9% stated they would vote for him.
  • 46.4% indicated they would not.

The survey was conducted across 26 provinces, including Istanbul, İzmir, Ankara, and Gaziantep, with a sample of 2,022 individuals aged 18 and older, spanning urban and rural districts.

These findings reflect a deeply divided electorate, where undecided voters and potential opposition strategies will play a pivotal role in shaping Turkey’s political future.