The recent election survey by AREA Research, conducted from January 22-24, 2025, unveiled significant insights into Turkey’s political landscape. With voter preferences and the potential presidential candidate for the opposition in focus, the survey results highlight a highly competitive race between the ruling AKP and the main opposition CHP, as well as public opinion on constitutional amendments for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s re-election.
Key Findings from the Survey
- CHP vs. AKP: The vote shares for CHP (22.7%) and AKP (22.9%) reveal a razor-thin margin, emphasizing a highly competitive environment.
- Other Parties:
- MHP: 7.4%
- Democracy and Progress Party (DEM Party): 6.3%
- Zafer Party: 5.9%
- İyi Party: 5.5%
- Yeniden Refah Partisi: 2.5%
- Anahtar Parti: 1.6%
- Undecided Voters: A significant 22% of participants remain undecided, reflecting a crucial battleground for all parties.
Perception of the Presidential Government System
When asked about the effectiveness of the Presidential Government System:
- 36.2% found it successful.
- 60.1% deemed it unsuccessful.
- Among AKP voters, 24.2% rated it unsuccessful, and within the MHP, this figure stood at 29.1%. Among CHP and İyi Party supporters, over 90% evaluated the system as unsuccessful.
Constitutional Amendment for Erdoğan’s Re-election
The survey also addressed the constitutional limitation on presidential terms. Participants were asked if they support amending the rule allowing only two terms for Erdoğan to run again:
- 65.3% opposed the amendment.
- 29.7% supported it.
- Responses among MHP voters were evenly split, highlighting internal division on the issue.
Opposition’s Presidential Candidate
When asked about the opposition’s potential candidate:
- 36.8% had no opinion.
- 30.1% favored Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş.
- 21.1% supported Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu.
Support for Yavaş and İmamoğlu as Candidates
- 50.1% supported İmamoğlu’s candidacy.
- 53.7% believed Mansur Yavaş should run under all circumstances.
Independent Candidacy of Mansur Yavaş
If Mansur Yavaş were to run as an independent candidate:
- 43.9% stated they would vote for him.
- 46.4% indicated they would not.
The survey was conducted across 26 provinces, including Istanbul, İzmir, Ankara, and Gaziantep, with a sample of 2,022 individuals aged 18 and older, spanning urban and rural districts.
These findings reflect a deeply divided electorate, where undecided voters and potential opposition strategies will play a pivotal role in shaping Turkey’s political future.