TEPE Index for September 2020:  Retail confidence turns sideways

129th Issue of Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV) Retail Confidence Index (TEPE), has been published.  The index precedes the official Turkstat retail confidence index and is thus a valuable preliminary indicator of trends in one of Turkey’s most important industries.  Contrary to TEPE, the October Retail Confidence Index published on Monday revealed a 1.7% increase vs September.

Business turnover deterioration and increase in stocks level limited the change in September Retail Confidence Index. TEPE, increased by 0.4 points in September 2020 compared to August, while decreasing by 0.5 points compared to the same period of previous year.

The limited change in retail trust compared to last year and last month, was influenced by the deterioration of current business conditions and higher stock levels in the last 3 months, despite the increase in sales expectations projected for the next 3 months.

TEPE, which had a value of -16.1 points in September, decreased by 0.5 points compared to September 2019, and increased by 0.4 points relatively to the previous month.  Despite positive sales expectations for the next 3 months, weak turnover in the market and unfavorable changes in stock levels were effective in the decrease of TEPE Index value, compared to previous year.

The  sub-index  of sales expectations for next 3 months became -4.4 points in September 2020. Accordingly, sales expectations for the next 3 months increased by 6.6 points compared to August 2020 and increased 5.0 points in total compared to September 2019.

In September 2020, 31.4 percent of TEPE survey respondents reported improvement in expectations regarding hirings in the next quarter, while 36.5 percent stated that they expect a deterioration in their business environment.  The rate of those who did not expect any changes in their business activity remained at 32 percent.

Translation: Cem Cetinguc



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Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and www.paraanaliz.com and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal.