129th Issue of Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV) Retail Confidence Index (TEPE), has been published. The index precedes the official Turkstat retail confidence index and is thus a valuable preliminary indicator of trends in one of Turkey’s most important industries. Contrary to TEPE, the October Retail Confidence Index published on Monday revealed a 1.7% increase vs September.
Business turnover deterioration and increase in stocks level limited the change in September Retail Confidence Index. TEPE, increased by 0.4 points in September 2020 compared to August, while decreasing by 0.5 points compared to the same period of previous year.
The limited change in retail trust compared to last year and last month, was influenced by the deterioration of current business conditions and higher stock levels in the last 3 months, despite the increase in sales expectations projected for the next 3 months.
TEPE, which had a value of -16.1 points in September, decreased by 0.5 points compared to September 2019, and increased by 0.4 points relatively to the previous month. Despite positive sales expectations for the next 3 months, weak turnover in the market and unfavorable changes in stock levels were effective in the decrease of TEPE Index value, compared to previous year.
The sub-index of sales expectations for next 3 months became -4.4 points in September 2020. Accordingly, sales expectations for the next 3 months increased by 6.6 points compared to August 2020 and increased 5.0 points in total compared to September 2019.
In September 2020, 31.4 percent of TEPE survey respondents reported improvement in expectations regarding hirings in the next quarter, while 36.5 percent stated that they expect a deterioration in their business environment. The rate of those who did not expect any changes in their business activity remained at 32 percent.
Translation: Cem Cetinguc
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