Facing a possibly existential security challenge, Europe needs to ask swift questions and find immediate solutions. It may not be to everyone’s taste given a history of troubled relations, but the continent has an obvious solution staring it in the face — Turkey.
Turkey has European NATO’s largest land force, with close to 400,000 ground troops, and double that when reserves are included. It has over 2,000 main battle tanks, close to half those in European NATO, while its naval forces have critical control and leverage over Black Sea shipping lanes.
With Europe struggling to put together a reassurance force for Ukraine of perhaps 20,000-30,000, only Turkey has the ability to scale up to something effective, at least in the short term.
There are some positive signs. Entrenched European suspicion of Turkey was put aside when Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan was asked to attend the March 2 security summit on Ukraine at Lancaster House in London.
But it is on defense industrial output that Ankara can make an even bigger difference. Europe now openly states that it must raise indigenous military industrial production, but acknowledges this will take some years to bear fruit.
Germany and the EU on March 5-6 announced huge financing packages to support arms production. The continent recognizes late, but with clarity, that a possible US pullback on the continent’s defense leaves huge capability gaps.
The prospect of a bad peace imposed by the US and Russia has caused European powers to consider fielding a European reassurance force in Ukraine, but also to create more independence and therefore less reliance on the US. While Turkey has played both sides to some effect during the war, an outright Russian victory would allow the Kremlin to renew its quasi-imperial effort to dominate the Black Sea and the South Caucasus and to eradicate Ukraine, where Turkey has substantial interests. None of this would be welcomed by the government of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Given the incentives Europe can provide, Turkey would have every reason to cooperate, all the more so since it has defense capabilities today that Europe won’t have until tomorrow.
Turkey can provide stop-gap solutions. It has a huge and efficient manufacturing sector with real strengths in defense production. It has the ability to produce tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and munitions — including 155mm artillery shells — at scale.
The country also has advanced and increasingly vital military technologies — including world-beating capabilities in drones, where Europe’s defense-industrial complex is lacking. This capability was showcased in the early days of the conflict in Ukraine where Turkish Bayraktar drones proved lethally effective in the battle for Kyiv, helping to hold back columns of Russian tanks.
What would Turkey seek in return? It yearns for cooperation and particularly technology exchange, which could work well for both parties. This would bring a common good in terms of enhanced security for the whole continent.
In recent days, we have seen clear evidence of a willingness to engage and work together on both sides. The Turkish drone company, Baykar, announced a landmark deal with the European defense giant Leonardo on March 6 for future joint production to exploit Europe’s $100bn military drone market. This comes after Baykar’s recent investment in the Piaggio aerospace company in Genoa, Italy.
Hopefully this will act as a clarion call for other European defense companies to reach out to Turkish partners who are eager for cooperation. They could offer help with financing and access to markets.
Europe can facilitate greatly on the latter by speedily moving to upgrade the EU–Turkey Customs Union, while the UK should follow suit with a post Brexit bilateral trade deal.
The country has been a mainstay of European security through its 70-odd year membership of NATO. Notwithstanding rows including disputes on migration, the safe haven given to Kurdish opposition groups and, as a result, Sweden’s NATO membership, these are immensely challenging times and this is a good moment to move on.
Turkey remains a critical partner and ally for Europe and its cooperation is absolutely key if we are to weather the storm caused by our common dilemmas and common threats.
Timothy Ash is a Senior Emerging Markets Sovereign Strategist at RBC BlueBay Asset Management in London. He is an Associate Fellow at Chatham House on its Russia and Eurasian program.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis.
IMPORTANT DİSCLOSURE: PA Turkey intends to inform Turkey watchers with diverse views and opinions. Articles in our website may not necessarily represent the view of our editorial board or count as endorsement.
Follow our English language YouTube videos @ REAL TURKEY: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKpFJB4GFiNkhmpVZQ_d9Rg
And content at Twitter: @AtillaEng
Facebook: Real Turkey Channel: https://www.facebook.com/realturkeychannel/