A new highway that cuts through land Azerbaijan captured from Armenia less than a year ago showcases Turkey’s growing economic presence in a region that has long been seen as part of Russia’s domain.
Crews pouring asphalt on the Victory Road work around the clock for two Turkish companies close to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The road links Azerbaijan with the historic city of Shusha, the biggest prize Azerbaijan snatched from Armenia in a six-week war over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Thousands died in the 2020 conflict, in which Turkey supplied firepower to help Azerbaijan achieve a decisive edge.
Now, Erdogan is reaching out to arch-foe Armenia as he tries to cement Turkey’s influence in the south Caucasus, where it vies with Russia and Iran. He has suggested diplomatic relations could be restored after a nearly 30-year rupture. Nikol Pashinyan, Armenia’s prime minister, has said he is ready for talks “without preconditions”.
‘Positive signals’
Turkey sealed its border with Armenia in 1993 to protest against Yerevan’s takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh, a predominantly ethnic Armenian region that is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan.
Russia-brokered ceasefire terms in November 2020 handed Azerbaijan most of the land it had lost to Armenia in the 1990s conflict. Turkey has said the return of the territory eliminates the main obstacle blocking formal ties with Armenia, and in recent weeks Erdogan has said he could work to “gradually normalise relations”. Armenia says it is ready to reciprocate.
“As there are positive signals coming from both sides, it gives the opportunity at some point in the near future to start talks . . . on opening the border, starting economic relations and relations between the governments,” said Armen Grigoryan, Armenia’s security council secretary.
A thaw would allow trade and diplomacy to take root, but fully fledged reconciliation remains a distant prospect. The neighbours are haunted by the first world war-era genocide of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire, which Turkey denies was a state-orchestrated campaign.
Azerbaijan relaxes opposition
Critically, Baku is now less resistant to a breakthrough between Ankara and Yerevan. Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan’s president, foiled their last attempt to mend fences in 2009, when Erdogan sought to appease him by stipulating that Armenia first resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
“The situation has changed tremendously since 2009 . . . Turkish-Armenian relations should be up to the two countries,” said Hikmet Hajiev, Aliyev’s foreign policy adviser. “We’d love to see a more inclusive process. Everyone should be in if you’re talking about long-term security and stability in the region.”
Since last year, Moscow has largely sidelined Ankara in the post-conflict diplomacy, said Richard Giragosian, director of the Regional Studies Center, a Yerevan think-tank. “We have Russian stage management [on] all regional restoration of trade and transport without Turkey at the table. For Turkey, Armenia normalisation is the way to get back a seat.”
Inserting Turkey into a regional peace initiative may help Azerbaijan counterbalance Russia, which maintains a military base in Armenia. “Allowing Armenia-Turkey normalisation and bringing Turkey back into the region is necessary to counter Aliyev’s vulnerability to the Russians,” Giragosian said.
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