Official stats agency Turkstat released retail sales and various trade turn-over data for September. Retail sales, a preliminary indicator of GDP recorded an inflation adjusted 2.3+ MoM, reversing a slow-down evident through July data.
Türkiye’s trade sales volume increased by nearly 13% on a yearly basis in September, led primarily by a strong uptick in retail sales, official data showed on Tuesday.
The trade sales increased 12.7% when compared to same month last year, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) said.
In the same month wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles volume increased by 3.3%, wholesale trade sales volume increased by 13% and retail trade sales volume increased by 15.9%, the institute noted.
Under retail trade, food-drink-tobacco items posted an increase of 10.3% on an annual basis, while non-food items saw a surge of 22.1%.
On a monthly basis, trade sales rose by 3.2% in the country, while retail sales were up by 2.3%, the data showed.
Turnover
A separate report by TurkStat on Tuesday showed that the total turnover increased by 47% on an annual basis in the country in September, which is largely in line with annualized inflation.
Looking at the details of the total turnover index, industry surged by 33.2%, and trade increased by 49% and services increased by 55.4% on an annual basis in September 2024.
Meanwhile, the construction sector’s turnover saw the largest increase of 76.4% year-on-year, according to the data, confirmed by the robust home sales data of August-September, but declines in prices continue.
The recovery in retail sales ought to continue in October, because both Turkstat and BloombergHT consumer confidence indices inched up. The progress of retail sales contradicts Central Bank forecasts of a slow-down in domestic demand. Additionally, while industrial production, too, recovered MoM in September, retail sales are increasing faster, suggesting that companies can easily defend profit margins. This is bad news for inflation.
It is evident that almost a year long tight monetary policy failed to moderate domestic demand, which bodes ill for 2025 CPI forecasts. It is somewhat puzzling that despite strong retail sales and and a TL that appreciated in real terms since the beginning of the year, current account deficits continue to shrink, according to September final and October preliminary data.
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