Turkey’s central government budget recorded a 310 billion TRY deficit in February 2025, nearly doubling the 153.8 billion TRY deficit from last year. During the same period, the primary deficit also saw a sharp increase, rising from 99 billion TRY to 170.4 billion TRY.
As a result, the 12-month total budget deficit, which stood at 2,094.7 billion TRY in January, climbed to 2,251 billion TRY in February. Similarly, the primary deficit rose from 782.3 billion TRY to 853.7 billion TRY.
Looking at the January-February period, the budget deficit widened from 304.5 billion TRY in 2024 to 449.4 billion TRY in 2025, while the primary deficit grew from 128.6 billion TRY to 146.6 billion TRY.
Fiscal Discipline Under Scrutiny
The data highlights a deterioration in the budget balance, with corporate tax revenues showing minimal growth due to shifts in tax payment schedules. A clearer picture is expected once March budget figures are released in April. However, early indicators suggest that fiscal discipline commitments for 2024 and 2025 were not upheld in the first quarter.
While the government aims to reduce the budget deficit-to-GDP ratio from 5% to around 4%, expenditure levels remain a key risk factor. If spending continues at this pace, achieving the 24% inflation target for the year appears increasingly challenging.