The Presidential Government System, which took effect on July 9, 2018, marked a major shift in Turkey’s governance, concentrating decision-making power in the Presidential Palace. However, rather than leading to the promised economic “soaring,” the system has coincided with a period of severe economic deterioration across key indicators.
A recent study by CHP MP Bekir Başevirgen, covering 2018-2024, reveals how economic realities contradict President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s repeated pledges of economic takeoff. Despite Erdoğan’s statements—such as “Thank God, we are soaring” (2015), “We will take off” (2023), and “The upcoming period will be a soaring era” (2024)—the data paints a starkly different picture.
Key Economic Indicators (2018-2025)
- Inflation Surge: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 20.30% in 2018 to 44.38% by the end of 2024.
- Food Inflation: Increased from 25.11% in 2018 to 43.58% in 2024, significantly impacting household budgets.
- Exchange Rate Collapse: In 2018, 1 USD = 4.8 TL; by 2025, the lira had depreciated 7.5 times, reaching 36.5 TL per dollar.
- Gold Prices Skyrocketing: 1 gram of gold cost 220 TL in 2018 but surged to 3,420 TL in March 2025.
- Rising Poverty and Cost of Living:
- In February 2018, the minimum cost of living for a family of four was 1,637 TL, and the poverty threshold was 5,331 TL.
- By February 2025, the hunger threshold had climbed to 23,324 TL, while the poverty threshold soared to 75,973 TL.
- Household Debt Crisis: Citizens’ total debt to banks increased from 889 billion TL in 2018 to 4.127 trillion TL in 2025.
- Rising Dependence on Social Assistance: The number of households receiving social aid rose from 2.6 million in 2018 to 3.68 million in 2024.
A Systemic Economic Decline
The economic collapse since 2018 has not only eroded purchasing power but has also damaged Turkey’s global financial credibility. The presidential system’s centralized decision-making—with major policies dictated from the Presidential Palace—has led to unpredictable economic shifts, discouraging foreign investment and destabilizing financial markets.
While Erdoğan continues to reiterate promises of economic resurgence, inflation, currency devaluation, and rising debt levels suggest that Turkey’s economy has yet to experience the prosperity envisioned when the new governance system was implemented.