Turkish Election Prediction: Kilicdaroglu Beats Erdogan, Parliament Goes to Opposition Alliance

Atilla YeşiladaPosted on

Turkish Election Prediction: Kilicdaroglu Beats Erdogan, Parliament Goes to Opposition Alliance

  • These are final predictions for Turkey’s presidential  and parliamentary elections by Real Turkey staff.

 

  • The predictions are based on latest poll averages, as well as majority expert opinion.

 

  • Kemal Kilicdaroglu is set to win the presidency in the run-off.

 

  • AKP-MHP remains the largest bloc in the Grand Assembly, but opposition alliances Nation and Green Left will have a majority.

 

  • There are 4 factors which can upset these predictions.

 

  • The groundswell-shy voter theory.

 

  • Erdogan’s unpredictable health.

 

  • Currency shock.

 

  • Foul play – vote heist.

 

  • Election process may last through May.

 

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Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and www.paraanaliz.com and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal.