Turkish Election Prediction: Kilicdaroglu Beats Erdogan, Parliament Goes to Opposition Alliance
- These are final predictions for Turkey’s presidential and parliamentary elections by Real Turkey staff.
- The predictions are based on latest poll averages, as well as majority expert opinion.
- Kemal Kilicdaroglu is set to win the presidency in the run-off.
- AKP-MHP remains the largest bloc in the Grand Assembly, but opposition alliances Nation and Green Left will have a majority.
- There are 4 factors which can upset these predictions.
- The groundswell-shy voter theory.
- Erdogan’s unpredictable health.
- Currency shock.
- Foul play – vote heist.
- Election process may last through May.
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