International policy expert Prof. Dr. Mustafa Aydın stated that if the Russia-Ukraine war prolongs, it can be passed to the stage of secondary sanctions, and added that then the sanctions may include not only Russia, but also people, companies and countries doing business with Russia and may pose a risk for Turkey.
Answering Reuters’ questions, Aydın said, “No one is speaking yet, but the issue of secondary sanctions may come to the fore and companies, individuals and countries that do business and cooperate with Russia may be included.”
Reminding the US sanctions against Turkey in the field of defense industry due to the S-400 missile system it bought from Russia, Aydın said, “The CAATSA sanctions are not actually sanctions against Turkey. Sanctions on Russia in CAATSA. Turkey had to deal with this on the second side. There is a possibility that we may encounter something like that,” he said.
CAATSA, which entered into force in 2017 with the signature of former US President Donald Trump, forms the basis of the sanctions imposed on Iran, North Korea and Russia. CAATSA envisages imposing sanctions on individuals and institutions that have significant exchanges with institutions and individuals connected with the Russian defense and intelligence sectors.
After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which was launched almost a month ago, the USA and the European Union quickly launched sanctions targeting the entire Russian economy, decision makers and wealthy business people described as oligarchs.
Ankara, which has repeatedly stated that it is against bilateral sanctions and does not implement the US and EU sanctions against Russia, has stated that it will implement it if a sanction decision is issued by the United Nations.
However, since Russia is a permanent member of the UN Security Council, it is thought that it is not possible to take a UN sanction decision against Moscow.
DR AYDIN EVALUATED THE STATUS OF TURKEY
Stating that Turkey is not a party to the sanctions, Aydın emphasized that Turkey is also a country under sanctions and is against sanctions.
“Everyone knows about America’s (Turkey) sanctions, but for example, Canada imposes sanctions on Turkey, right? Some of the cameras mounted on our unmanned aerial vehicles do not sell to Turkey, but Germany does the same. No one notices because these are not announced as sanctions and are not talked about in public,” Aydın said, noting that there is a limitation on Turkey in this sense and that Turkey is in a position against sanctions.
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TURKEY STUCK IN BETWEEN
Emphasizing that Turkey is one of the most troubled countries in terms of being between Ukraine and Russia, Aydın pointed out that Turkey has strategic relations with both Ukraine and Russia, and said, “There is a cooperation with Russia in Syria in terms of security in the Middle East. . In addition, there is cooperation on very important issues such as natural gas, coal, food, and the construction of nuclear power plants. There is also a very comprehensive and complicated economic relationship dimension,” he said.
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Stating that there has been no political problem between Ankara and Kyiv since Ukraine’s independence, Aydın said that there is a gradually developing trade with Ukraine and a serious level of cooperation in the defense industry in recent years.
According to Aydın, when viewed on a broader level, Ukraine is a part of the balance to be created against Russia from the point of view of Turkey geopolitically in the Black Sea.
Aydın said, “Without Ukraine, it is not easy for Turkey to balance Russia alone in this geography,” and continued his words as follows: “There is a serious dilemma for Turkey. On top of all this, a stalemate arises due to the problems Turkey has had with its allies in recent years. Because while Turkey moved away from its allies to a certain extent, they started to take a position against Russia. For this reason, Turkey is strangely positioned at a point between its allies in NATO and Russia. And this has come and knotted in Ukraine now. These are the challenges of the event.”
“TURKEY WAS IN UKRAINE WHILE NO ONE HELPED”
But on the other hand, Turkey said, “I am not a party to this war. I have good relations with both parties and I am determined to maintain it. Saying that he put forward his position by saying “I will do my best to end the war,” Aydın pointed out that Ankara has not been subjected to extensive criticism so far.
Aydın said, “Turkey’s presence in the middle with an approach that prioritizes its own interests plays an important role in this as well.” Aydın said, “(Arms sales) Of course, Turkey did not do this for free. He also sold unmanned aerial vehicles. In return, he received an income. But in the end, Turkey sold it while nobody else was selling it. Just before the invasion, President Erdogan was in Ukraine. So the future of the invasion was clear. Everyone was waiting and trying to stop it. But the President of Turkey was in Ukraine and signed very comprehensive agreements with Ukraine. He showed his support to Ukraine… While nobody was helping, Turkey was there in a sense trying to balance Russia,” he said.
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