“The AK Party did what was necessary even without the Nationalist Movement Party”.
MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli made these remarks during a contentious session of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey (TBMM) on August 16, after Can Atalay refused to discuss the issue of his parliamentary seat in Parliament.
This sentence explains very well the tutelage that the MHP has established over the AK Party on important issues, especially after the local elections on March 31, 2024. All executive authority is in the hands of President Tayyip Erdoğan, but Bahçeli’s word gets through.
Bahçeli was drawing attention to the MHP’s decision not to attend the Can Atalay session by saying “AK Party did what was necessary without MHP”.
Bahçeli’s decision not to attend was a test of whether Erdoğan could run the ship without him under the current circumstances. Just before the extraordinary session of the General Assembly, Abdullah Güler, the AK Party’s Parliamentary Group Chairman, had shown that the real violator of the Constitution was the Constitutional Court itself. But the problem is not limited to Can Atalay (and the Gezi file), which Bahçeli considered “closed”; the AK Party and Erdoğan have once again made a strategic choice.
The indispensability of the MHP for the AK Party
In fact, Erdoğan showed this preference in his speech at the 23rd anniversary of his party on August 14 by saying “continue on the road with the MHP”, which was the only message in the speech that was not open to any other interpretation.
If you are one of those who believe that loyalty has a place in politics, you might think that this is just a debt of loyalty Erdoğan owes to his ally Bahçeli, who gave him the Executive Presidency system and got him elected President twice.
So, what else could be the reason for the MHP’s indispensability for the AK Party?
1- The MHP is stable while the AK Party is in decline. The AK Party received 42.5 percent in the 2018 general elections. This rate dropped to 35.6 percent in 2023. The MHP received 11.1 percent in 2018, 10.7 percent in 2023 and just above 10 percent in the latest polls. Currently, the MHP rate is increasing in the vote balance in the People’s Alliance.
MHP brand in early election
2- Only the MHP can lead to early elections. Turkey has gone to every election and referendum since 2002 – except for the ones that were held on time – with the MHP leading the way. The CHP, which was able to increase its share of the vote from 22.6 percent in 2018 to 25.4 percent in 2023, is above 30 percent in the polls conducted after the March 31 local elections, but its number of seats in Parliament is not enough for early elections despite the ongoing economic crisis.
The AK Party, on the other hand, does not want early elections at the moment; we have just seen the voting picture. In this case, the strongest factor that could lead the country to early elections at the moment could be the MHP’s departure from the People’s Alliance.
3- The MHP’s opposition would be fierce. If elections were held today, there are four parties that could enter the elections alone and overcome the 7 percent threshold: CHP, AK Party, MHP and DEM. MHP going into opposition is not a situation that Erdoğan and AK Party would want to face, at least today. MHP’s opposition is not like CHP’s. It has a certain street power, its base is ready to react, especially due to the economic crisis, and since 2016 they have become more influential in the state cadres.
May affect the change in the AK Party
The emerging landscape may also affect the nature of the change that Erdoğan promised in his August 14 speech. In particular, warnings such as “those who are tired should step aside and not get in the way” indicate that he will adopt a stricter line in terms of party discipline.
The announcement that the AK Party Congress, which was previously scheduled for the fall of 2024, will now be held in 2025 suggests that Erdoğan will act as in the proverb “one does not change horses while crossing a stream”.
He may pursue the dual goal of preserving the balance within the AK Party without causing a further loss of power and at the same time not alienating the MHP. On the other side of the coin, the positions taken in order to avoid alienating the MHP may lead to disappointment among the proponents of “returning to the factory settings” within the AK Party. But at this stage, more votes are already cast for Erdoğan than for the AK Party.
There is talk in political circles that the MHP, with the strength it gains from this situation, may make a new test of strength in the coming period over the rest of the Ninth Judicial Package. There are those within the MHP who are pushing for the release of some members of international criminal organizations, whose arrest under Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya led to Turkey’s removal from the Gray List.