Summary
- We present our Q3 2023 forecasts for Türkiye coverage
- We expect total non-bank profits to surge 60% y-o-y and 70% q-o-q; private banks’ profits to rise 15% y-o-y and 23% q-o-q
- We expect strong results from autos, aviation, food retailers, and food & beverage; weak results from steel and petchems.
Aggregate non-banks Q3 profits to grow 60% y-o-y and 70% q-o-q
The Q3 earnings season will kick off on 20 October (Arcelik will be the first of our coverage to report) and finish on 9 November for non-banks and 20 November for banks.
For non-banks, we expect elevated FX rates post the sharp TRY devaluation in June and the upturn in inflation from July onwards to impact Q3 performances, as high FX rates and inflation-linked pricing (of goods and services) support the profits of particularly exporters and FX-linked businesses. Our estimates point to a y-o-y surge of 52% in aggregate revenues, 70% in EBITDA and 60% in profits. On a q-o-q basis, we expect increases of 36% in revenues, 55% in EBITDA and 70% in profits.
For private banks, we expect upwards repricing of CPI linkers, still high trading gains and low CoR to keep earnings resilient. TRY lending spreads should improve visibly, but another quarter is likely needed for them to turn positive. We expect YKB to stand out with 63% q-o-q profit growth on CPI linker adjustments and better loan/deposit yield progression than peers. Vakifbank should also show a decent recovery in earnings from a very depressed base, paving the way for a substantially stronger Q4.
Where we expect relatively stronger results
- Autos (Dogus, Ford, Turk Traktor, Tofas) – improved output, strong demand and pricing and FX (for exporters) should support earnings across the board.
- Aviation (Pegasus, Turkish Airlines, TAV) – strong FX exposure and healthy international traffic in the peak tourism season should support aviation sector results.
- Food & Apparel retailers, Food & Beverage (Bim, Sok, Migros, Mavi, Efes, CCI, Ulker) – earnings supported on solid revenue growth (high food inflation) and good cost control. F&B producers appear resilient on good Türkiye growth, well supported by healthy international businesses. Mavi continues to enjoy good volumes with rising market share despite reflecting cost push to prices.
Where we expect relatively weaker y-o-y results
- Steel (Erdemir, Kardemir) – EBITDA/t remains weaker y-o-y and q-o-q with lower steel prices even though volumes should recover from 1H lows.
- Petchems (Petkim) – we expect earnings to decline sequentially on the back of margin squeeze. Petkim’s product prices have remained broadly flat sequentially while feedstock naphtha prices have increased in 3Q23. The chemicals market is oversupplied due to new plants start-ups and weak demand.
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