Ankara, one of the principal backers of some of the Syrian rebels who ousted President Bashar al-Assad, is being seen as a winner in the overthrow of the Assad regime. However, analysts warn much of the success of the operation will depend on whether a stable government emerges.
The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army played a role in the overthrow of Assad. However, it was the radical Islamist group Hayat Tahir Al Sham – or HTS – that led the offensive. And that, analysts say, will be a cause for apprehension in Ankara.
“Despite all the jubilation of the Turkish press and the government and the circles that support the government about the collapse of the Assad regime in general, I would think there is some uneasiness,” says Hasan Unal, professor of international relations at Ankara’s Baskent University.
“I can see it through lots of problematic issues that would be coming out of what’s going to happen,” he added, “because of the ideological Islamist leanings of the incumbent government and… the Islamic jihadist terrorist groups associated with it.”
Support and protection
However, Turkey may not be entirely without influence over Syria’s new Islamist leaders. For years, it provided support and protection to the Idlib region of Syria, where HTS was based.
Analyst Aydin Selcen suggests Ankara could retain significant influence if recent statements by HTS leadership calling for an inclusive Syrian government are honoured.
“If pragmatism prevails, that’s perhaps where Turkey and Ankara may come in. And also Ankara definitely will be viewed as a positive outside contributor by these new Syrian rulers, because of the fact that we here in Turkey are hosting over 5 million Syrians and also that Turkey helped protect Idlib.”
Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan, addressing an international conference in Doha last Sunday, 8 December, said that Turkey is committed to helping secure a politically inclusive new Syria.
Turkey’s Syrian refugees
A stable Syria is also key to Ankara’s goal of sending home millions of Syrian refugees now living in Turkey. Public resentment over their presence has grown, as the country has grappled with an economic crisis over the past few years.
However, such a return may not be simple, predicts Sezin Oney, a commentator on Turkey’s independent Politikyol news site.
“The refugees, the Syrians you have in Turkey, are mostly women and children. So it has to be a [new Syrian] government, an administration, friendly to women and children, especially women.”
“But we don’t know if these Islamic jihadist groups will be really friendly towards these groups,” he added.
“There might be a Taliban 2.0 arising just across the border; we don’t know what kind of administration HTS and surrounding groups will be. It’s a big security risk; I don’t see Syria settling down to become a safe clash-free place.”
For now, Erdogan is celebrating the overthrow of Assad as a Turkish triumph, with European leaders and Washington queuing up to speak to him as Turkey positions itself as a key player in shaping Syria’s future.
But the sudden demise of the Assad regime underscores how quickly fortunes can change in the region, and the future of Syria – and Turkey’s role in it – are today more uncertain than ever.