Two separate polls have shown that the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) leads President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the parliamentary elections.
According to the Piar company’s poll, 29.6 percent of the respondents said they would vote for the CHP if there were elections this Sunday, whereas the AKP’s support was at 27.8 percent.
The two leading parties were followed by the Kurdish issue-focused Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) with 11.2 percent, the İYİ (Good) Party, the allies of the CHP, with 11 percent, and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), the allies of the AKP, with 7.3 percent, just over the updated election threshold of 7 percent.
The poll was conducted online among over 11,000 people on July 1 and 2, according to the company’s statement.
According to the other poll conducted by the Yöneylem company, CHP gets 27.7 percent of the votes, AKP gets 27.1 percent, İYİ Party gets 16 percent, HDP gets 10.4 percent and MHP gets 8.2 percent.
The poll was carried out among 2,704 people between June 24-28, said the company.
The two polls mark a shift in the balance of power between parties as they indicate that the AKP, for the first time in nearly two decades, is no more the party with the highest popular support.
While it has been steadily losing support for over a year, the AKP has been still the first party with a fair margin to the CHP.
In June, seven of the eight pollsters found the AKP was the party with the highest popular support. Its voting rate varied between 27.2 percent and 32.8 percent.
The highest support for the CHP in a poll last month was 30.8 percent and the lowest one was 23.1 percent.
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Commenting on recent polls, SİTA Political Consulting GM Suat Ozcelebi told T24 that recent polls confirm AKP sliding below the psychologically critical 30% threshold, towards its core constituency, estimated at 25-26%. It is also losing to main rival CHP, while migrations among six parties constituting the Nation Alliance are also taking place.
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Ozcelebi comments that AKP’s slide in the polls has slowed in recent months, but is still in progress. According to the expert, Turkey’s poor economic conditions are the primary culprit for Erdogan’s loss of popularity. Islamist and conservative voters are also coming to realize that the opposition will not treat them less favorably than Erdogan, thus psychological barriers to cross over are declining.
All this being said, add Ozcelebi, for the opposition a victory is still not in the bag. It must convince “undecideds” estimated at 15-18% of total voters to firmly cut off the umbilical link to AKP. The second crucial voter segment are the first time voters, who will make up ca 12% of the eligible voters in 2023 elections. While the bulk of these new voters are firmly against AKP, they have little trust in the opposition. The opposition must gain trust, as well as introduce feasible ideas about improving their economic and social standing.
Sources: Bianet, T24, PATurkey staff
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