Ukraine Crisis Could Cost Turkey $30 Billion

 

Ukraine Crisis Could Cost Turkey $30 Billion

 

  • Turkey’s leading economist, Mr. Mahfi Eğilmez estimated the cost of the “Ukraine Crisis” at $30 bn.

 

  • I had independently calculated $35 bn.

 

  • $30 bn is roughly 4% of annual national income.

 

  • Such a loss would kick Turkey into a deep recession, as well as precipitate a Balance of Payments crisis.

 

  • Why are we paying through our nose for a war which transpires across the Black Sea?

 

 

The break-down of the cost (Items cost at different values by economists I consulted)

 

Higher import bill: Energy, Commodities

 

Lower exports and tourism revenues

 

Weaker currency—FX protected deposit insurance scheme

 

Indirect costs: Lower foreign debt roll-over ratio, the impact of inflation on consumer spending

 

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Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and www.paraanaliz.com and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal.