Ukraine Crisis Could Cost Turkey $30 Billion
- Turkey’s leading economist, Mr. Mahfi Eğilmez estimated the cost of the “Ukraine Crisis” at $30 bn.
- I had independently calculated $35 bn.
- $30 bn is roughly 4% of annual national income.
- Such a loss would kick Turkey into a deep recession, as well as precipitate a Balance of Payments crisis.
- Why are we paying through our nose for a war which transpires across the Black Sea?
The break-down of the cost (Items cost at different values by economists I consulted)
Higher import bill: Energy, Commodities
Lower exports and tourism revenues
Weaker currency—FX protected deposit insurance scheme
Indirect costs: Lower foreign debt roll-over ratio, the impact of inflation on consumer spending
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