Video Commentary:  Turkey on the Verge of Currency Crisis

Atilla YeşiladaPosted on

 

Turkey on the verge of a currency crisis

 

  • President Erdogan’s one-man, no-clue governance style brought Turkey to the edge of the abyss.

 

  • Dolar/TL has gained about 20% in 2 weeks.

 

  • It is likely to inch up to 9.00 (currently at 8.30)

 

  • This massive and sudden devaluation will reverberate through a sickly economy like a nuclear aftershock.

 

  • How? Inflation will soar as early as May.  Overly-indebted companies will go into bankruptcy.

 

  • Wait…This is not the worst.

 

  • The devaluation-inflation spiral could trigger a bank run.

 

  • Thank to rising US bond yields and Dollar Index all EM is in bad shape, which will make it harder to pull Turkey back from the abyss.

 

  • What to do? Simple.

 

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Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and www.paraanaliz.com and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal.