In May 2023, Turkey held its national elections, where Recep Tayyip Erdogan secured a third term in office, until 2028. The local elections may give the mistaken impression that they are less important in outcome than the national. This could not be further than the truth, as Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) suffered a resounding defeat across the entire country.
The main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) delivered its best electoral performance since 1977, and denied Erdogan the ability to win back major cities across the country, including Istanbul and Ankara. Moreover, the result can be interpreted as a personal repudiation of Erdogan by voters, and the launching of Ekrem Imamoglu’s national political career. It is now widely assumed that Imamoglu, the current CHP mayor of Istanbul is the presumptive nominee who will seek to succeed Erdogan at the next presidential election (2028).
Questions following Sunday’s elections are clear: are the results of the local elections the beginning of the end of Erdogan’s time in office? To what extent is Erdogan politically wounded? Are we witnessing a democratic revival in Turkey? What course will Erdogan chart in response to Sunday’s results? To discuss the election results and its immediate to long term implications, FDD hosts a panel featuring Guldem Atabay, Economist at Istanbul Analytics; Sinan Ciddi, Non-Resident Senior Fellow at FDD; Howard Eissenstat, Associate Professor of Middle East History at St. Lawrence University; and Atilla Yesilada, President at Istanbul Analytics. The panel will be moderated by journalist Yavuz Baydar, and feature introductory remarks by FDD Senior Vice President for Research, Jonathan Schanzer.
