Turkey’s main stock index rallied 25% year to date in TL terms, leading all major Emerging Market equity benchmarks.
• The rally was scarcely attended by global fundas, which is a prerequisite for a sustainable increase.
• To the extent there is fundamental reason behind the rally, it might be retail investors pricing a “soft landing” scenario for the economy.
• This is incorrect. Interest rates are very likely to increase in the aftermath of 31 March local elections, while achieving success against inflation will require additional measures to slow down domestic demand.
• A sharp sell-off is likely in the coming weeks, unless global funds begin to trust Mehmet Simsek and begin taking large positions.
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