In the week of December 20, the USD3.5 billion decrease in the CBRT’s net FX reserves excluding swaps, the USD337 million purchases of GDDS by non-residents and the USD180 million increase in FX deposits are particularly noteworthy. The weekly movements can be summarized as follows:
➢ Parity adjusted FX deposits decreased by approximately USD180 million, driven by USD102 million in sales from corporates and USD78 million from individuals. Since the week of March 29, FX deposits have declined by USD27.8 billion, with USD13.7 billion of this decrease coming from individuals and USD14.1 billion from corporates.
➢ FX-protected deposits (KKM) decreased to TL1.153 million with a weekly outflow of TL16 billion (USD0.6 billion). Since the peak in August 2023, KKM accounts have decreased by TL2.254 billion (USD103.4 billion).
➢ The share of FX deposits + KKM in total deposits decreased from 41.6% to 41.4% WoW. Note that the share of FX deposits and KKM accounts in total deposits had peaked at 68.4% in August 2023.
➢ TL deposits increased by TL7 billion weekly, reaching approximately TL12 trillion.
➢ FX loans increased by 0.4% weekly but have increased by 24% (USD32.6 billion) since the end of March, reaching USD167.2 billion.
➢ Looking at the annualized 13-week average loan growth, commercial loans decreased from 25.2% to 23.6%, while consumer loans rose from 40.5% to 44.5%.
➢ Net foreign inflows into GDDS were USD337 million, with the final balance reaching approximately USD17.6 billion. In equities, net sales amounted to USD169 million, decreasing the stock balance to USD33.2 billion. Year-to-date, net purchases in GDDS reached USD16.4 billion, while net sales in equities reached approximately USD2.6 billion.
➢ In the week of December 20, gross reserves decreased from USD163.5 billion to USD156.2 billion. Net reserves down by USD3.7 billion, increasing from USD65.4 billion to USD61.7 billion. Net FX reserves excluding swaps also decreased by USD3.5 billion, reaching USD47.1 billion. Since the end of March, when net FX reserves excluding swaps were at -USD65.5 billion, the improvement has totaled USD112.6 billion.
➢ According to the CBRT’s daily analytical balance sheet as of December 26, gross reserves decreased by USD130 million, net reserves by USD1 billion, and net reserves excluding swaps by USD2.6 billion. Consequently, net FX reserves excluding swaps have roughly remained around USD44.5 billion.
By Gedik Invest
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