Ankara is collateral damage if the war in Middle East spills over to Lebanon, Iran, as well USA. Turkish economy is woefully dependent on imported energy, the price of which is very likely to soar, if all-out war were to break out in the region. Additionally, Turkey could lose valuable exports to Iran, Middle East and North Africa if war spending were to curtail disposable income. Already, the cessation of Israeli trade has cost $7 bn in exports, and a net $2 bn, which sounds like a small sum given $265 bn in annual exports, but in industries like construction materials, the suffering is real.
If war were to spread, Erdogan will be forced by his Islamist constituency and AKP’s new rival New Welfare Party to take even more severe measures. Erdogan may be forced to ban Azerbaijan oil exports to Israel through Baku-Ceyhan pipeline. Turkey could also lose the annual flow of 400K-600K Israeli tourists at a time when the industry is complaining about an extraordinarily strong TL cutting profit margins.
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