Yusuf Kanli:  Aging Turkish population and the need for change

Türkiye has long been considered an advantageous country for foreign direct investment due to its young population and cheap labor. However, recent studies indicate that this is no longer the case. Statements frequently voiced by government officials, such as “Our industrialists do not want the Syrians to return, the wheels will stop if they do,” and the Minister of Agriculture’s remark, “We cannot find shepherds without Afghans, livestock farming would be in trouble,” are not exaggerated.

Due to demographic changes, the importance of the aging population and retirees in Türkiye is becoming increasingly prominent in both the economic and political arenas. As of 2023, Türkiye’s population is 10.2% elderly, classifying it among “aging” countries. This demographic shift necessitates reshaping of the country’s social and economic policies. However, the mindset that “there is no saving on prestige” unfortunately continues, creating significant contradictions in many areas.

 

The cost of ostentation and contradictions

 

While superficial and symbolic austerity measures, such as canceling public employee shuttle services, are being announced, millions are being spent on toilet restorations in the Ministry of Finance. These expenditures raise serious questions about how state financial resources are used. On the one hand, ministers continue their luxurious lifestyles with private jets, while on the other hand, retirees cannot receive cost-of-living adjustments. The 2,000-lira additional increase to official inflation rates being discussed in public is far from alleviating the economic hardships of retirees.

Livelihood of retirees

However, retirees cannot receive even a cost-of-living adjustment or a salary adjustment reflecting the actual inflation rate, and an additional fixed increase similar to the one given to civil servants at the beginning of the year is unthinkable. This situation raises a significant question about how retirees and low-income groups will maintain their living standards.

 

Political winds of change and polls

Recent public opinion polls indicate that winds of change are blowing in the political arena. According to Metropoll Research, the CHP maintains its position as the leading party with 32.8% of the vote, while the AKP’s support has risen to 32.4%. However, according to Panorama’s June survey, the CHP has 35% and the AKP 32.1%. This shift suggests that political balances are being reshaped. Although there is no specific study on the internal turmoil within the AKP, the frequent discussions within the ruling party about the fate of the former Motherland Party are quite interesting.

 

 

 

In AREA’s Political Situation Survey in Türkiye, 32.1% of respondents said they would vote for the CHP if elections were held today, while the AKP’s support dropped to 29%. The report also indicates that 53.3% of the public wants early general elections. These poll results demonstrate how the expectations of retirees and low-income groups influence the vote shares of political parties.

 

CHP leader Özgür Özel frequently brings early election demands to the forefront, and public opinion polls show that these demands have widespread support among the public. The finding that 53.3% of the public wants early general elections reflects dissatisfaction with the current government’s policies and a demand for change.

Ultimately, since parliament members acquire their retirement rights after serving for two years in the assembly, it is doubtful whether these calls for elections will lead to an election before June 2025. However, the slogan “Either Livelihood or Election” seems to be a contender for the motto of this period.

 

The role of retirees in politics

Türkiye, once proud of its young population, now faces a serious aging population issue, according to research. Yes, Türkiye is now a country with an aging population problem. The increasing proportion of the elderly population makes the role of retirees in politics more significant. Political parties need to take the expectations and needs of retirees more seriously. In this context, improving pension benefits, facilitating access to healthcare services, and strengthening the social security system are expected to become priorities.

Polls show how the expectations of retirees and low-income groups affect the vote shares of political parties. The CHP’s rise to the position of the leading party in the March elections for the first time in many years and maintaining that position for months, along with the AKP’s declining vote share, could indicate a shift in the voting preferences of these groups. Additionally, the increasing calls for early elections highlight the political influence that retirees and low-income groups have in shaping the political agenda.

 

Change is inevitable

The importance of the aging population and retirees in Türkiye must be addressed from demographic, economic, and political perspectives. Protecting and improving the living standards of retirees is not only a social necessity but also critical for ensuring political stability. In this regard, political parties need to take the expectations of retirees more seriously and develop policies accordingly.

 

 

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Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and www.paraanaliz.com and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal.